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绿豆2025-01-04 22:56:18美国经济传来一个坏消息，消费信贷违约率飙升

违约率已飙升至2008 年金融危机以来的最高水平；债务超过1万亿美元，并还在继续迅速扩张。
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绿豆2025-01-04 23:05:02贝特森面临两难选择。要么直接从民间抽取流动性来维持拜登式财政赤字，因此抬高资金成本；要么削减财政赤字，减少短债发行，降低公共财政对增长和就业的刺激。从特朗普、马斯克和贝特森的言行看，走后者路径的机会较大。能够削减开支多少，暂时无法评估，不过对于GDP增长肯定是负面的。

刚刚险胜保住众议长位子共和党约翰逊承诺，承诺实施削减政府开支[回复]
绿豆2025-01-04 23:17:47下周看点，锦上添‘花’

1月10日纽约，传，特朗普到庭，接受宣判！
特朗普未能推翻纽约州的定罪，1月10日面临判刑
彭博：Trump Fails to Toss NY Conviction, Faces Sentencing Jan. 10[回复]
绿豆2025-01-04 23:37:53特朗普第一任期后期要禁TikTok，到特朗普第二任期我爱TikTok

当选总统特朗普周五加倍支持TikTok，因为这款流行的社交媒体应用程序准备下周在最高法院反对即将实施的禁令。

特朗普：“我为什么要摆脱 TikTok？
国会山：Trump: ‘Why would I want to get rid of TikTok?’[回复]
绿豆2025-01-04 23:48:41国内自动驾驶萝卜快跑，登陆香港，试运行。[回复]
绿豆2025-01-04 23:57:48上汽MG电动车，MG英国品牌

根据汽车制造商和贸易商协会的初步数据，12 月电池驱动车型的销量同比增长约 60% 至近 44,000 辆。电动汽车占注册量的 31%，是两年来最高的月度份额。

英国电动汽车销量激增，汽车制造商大幅降价以逃避罚款
彭博：EV Sales Surge in UK as Carmakers Slash Prices to Dodge Fines
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绿豆2025-01-05 00:01:12早期吉利收购英国伦敦出租车
绿豆2025-01-04 23:57:48
上汽MG电动车，MG英国品牌根据汽车制造商和贸易商协会的初步数据，12 月电池驱动车型的销量同比增长约 60% 至近 44,000 辆。电动汽车占注册量的 31%，是两年来最高的月度份额。英国电动汽车销量激增，汽车制造商大幅降价以逃避罚款彭博：EV Sales Surge in UK as Carmakers Slash Prices to Dodge Fines
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绿豆2025-01-05 00:06:47沪深300周线，韭菜，躺平！
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绿豆2025-01-05 01:03:23上证指数周线
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绿豆2025-01-05 10:18:46近5个交易日A股行业（申万）跌幅
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绿豆2025-01-05 11:05:59中国AI大模型智取美国顶级实验室，成本下降许多性能不差，拜登芯片管制适得其反
DeepSeek outwits the top American labs
DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company that has spun out of a hedge fund, released its Version 3 large language model. It performs about as well as Claude 3.5 Sonnet. The breakthrough is how cheap it was to train. At roughly $5.6m to train, DeepSeek v3 was about a hundred times cheaper than Meta’s Llama 3 and probably a similar magnitude cheaper than Claude. (Technical details for those who want are here.)
DeepSeek’s API costs 12 times less than Anthropics. Developers around the world are starting to have fun with it.
Biden’s chip export controls have notionally hampered the team. But necessity is the mother of invention, and they delivered this superb model through ingenuity rather than brute force.
The ramifications:
As was reasonably likely, the export controls have backfired.
The gap between open source (like DeepSeek) and closed source (like OpenAI) is narrowing rapidly. It calls into question efforts to constrain open-source AI development.
China now has several world-class teams building AI systems, including Qwen, Kling (in video), Apollo (in self-driving) and, of course, Bytedance.

年终的觉醒：需要我们关注的“中国人造卫星”
以及如何在 2025 年维护和平与繁荣
The year-end wake-up: The ‘Chinese Sputnik’ that demands our attention
And how to maintain peace and prosperity in 2025[回复]
绿豆2025-01-05 11:09:24具有讽刺意味的是，拜登芯片出口管制似乎促使中国人工智能团队设计更精简、更高效的解决方案
The crucial significance of DeepSeek’s cheaper training methods lies in the path it opens up for wider adoption and innovation—particularly outside established tech hubs. If cutting-edge LLMs can be built on smaller budgets, then Western efforts to control or slow AI development may prove futile. Constraints breed ingenuity; ironically, export controls appear to have spurred Chinese AI teams to engineer leaner, more efficient solutions.
绿豆2025-01-05 11:05:59
中国AI大模型智取美国顶级实验室，成本下降许多性能不差，拜登芯片管制适得其反 DeepSeek outwits the top American labs DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company that has spun out of a hedge fund, released its Version 3 large language model. It performs about as well as Claude 3.5 Sonnet. The breakthrough is how cheap it was to train. At roughly $5.6m to train, DeepSeek v3 was about a hundred times cheaper than Meta’s Llama 3 and probably a similar magnitude cheaper than Claude. (Technical details for those who want are here.) DeepSeek’s API costs 12 times less than Anthropics. Developers around the world are starting to have fun with it. Biden’s chip export controls have notionally hampered the team. But necessity is the mother of invention, and they delivered this superb model through ingenuity rather than brute force. The ramifications: As was reasonably likely, the export controls have backfired. The gap between open source (like DeepSeek) and closed source (like OpenAI) is narrowing rapidly. It calls into question efforts to constrain open-source AI development. China now has several world-class teams building AI systems, including Qwen, Kling (in video), Apollo (in self-driving) and, of course, Bytedance. 年终的觉醒：需要我们关注的“中国人造卫星” 以及如何在 2025 年维护和平与繁荣 The year-end wake-up: The ‘Chinese Sputnik’ that demands our attention And how to maintain peace and prosperity in 2025
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绿豆2025-01-05 11:15:29锦上添‘花’
美国前总统卡特去世，30天下半旗
也就是说，特朗普就职典礼，白宫国防部等联邦政府机构下半旗致哀

特朗普抨击民主党人在他的就职典礼上庆祝半员旗帜
政治：Trump blasts ‘giddy’ Democrats for celebrating half-staff flags at his inauguration
绿豆2025-01-04 23:17:47
下周看点，锦上添‘花’ 1月10日纽约，传，特朗普到庭，接受宣判！特朗普未能推翻纽约州的定罪，1月10日面临判刑彭博：Trump Fails to Toss NY Conviction, Faces Sentencing Jan. 10
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绿豆2025-01-05 11:18:55本来美国两党可以协商下半旗问题，现在两党‌势不两立

分裂美国，撕裂美国
绿豆2025-01-05 11:15:29
锦上添‘花’ 美国前总统卡特去世，30天下半旗也就是说，特朗普就职典礼，白宫国防部等联邦政府机构下半旗致哀特朗普抨击民主党人在他的就职典礼上庆祝半员旗帜政治：Trump blasts ‘giddy’ Democrats for celebrating half-staff flags at his inauguration
绿豆2025-01-04 23:17:47
下周看点，锦上添‘花’ 1月10日纽约，传，特朗普到庭，接受宣判！特朗普未能推翻纽约州的定罪，1月10日面临判刑彭博：Trump Fails to Toss NY Conviction, Faces Sentencing Jan. 10
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绿豆2025-01-05 11:33:01幻方量化2021年囤积近万张英伟达A100，学美国对冲基金大佬西蒙斯做量化交易，不小心搞出大模型DeepSeek

DeepSeek在2000个GPU上，花了不到600万美金和2个月的时间，就实现了对齐GPT-4o和Claude 3.5 Sonnet的测试结果。
成本降了10倍以上，同时质量却能比肩t1阵营，并且开源的
绿豆2025-01-05 11:05:59
中国AI大模型智取美国顶级实验室，成本下降许多性能不差，拜登芯片管制适得其反 DeepSeek outwits the top American labs DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company that has spun out of a hedge fund, released its Version 3 large language model. It performs about as well as Claude 3.5 Sonnet. The breakthrough is how cheap it was to train. At roughly $5.6m to train, DeepSeek v3 was about a hundred times cheaper than Meta’s Llama 3 and probably a similar magnitude cheaper than Claude. (Technical details for those who want are here.) DeepSeek’s API costs 12 times less than Anthropics. Developers around the world are starting to have fun with it. Biden’s chip export controls have notionally hampered the team. But necessity is the mother of invention, and they delivered this superb model through ingenuity rather than brute force. The ramifications: As was reasonably likely, the export controls have backfired. The gap between open source (like DeepSeek) and closed source (like OpenAI) is narrowing rapidly. It calls into question efforts to constrain open-source AI development. China now has several world-class teams building AI systems, including Qwen, Kling (in video), Apollo (in self-driving) and, of course, Bytedance. 年终的觉醒：需要我们关注的“中国人造卫星” 以及如何在 2025 年维护和平与繁荣 The year-end wake-up: The ‘Chinese Sputnik’ that demands our attention And how to maintain peace and prosperity in 2025
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绿豆2025-01-05 11:35:02幻方量化2021年就囤了1万张英伟达A100，那会儿ChatGPT还没影呢，和Meta为了元宇宙囤卡却阴差阳错的赶上AI浪潮很像，DeepSeek买那么多卡，是为了做量化交易⋯
绿豆2025-01-05 11:33:01
幻方量化2021年囤积近万张英伟达A100，学美国对冲基金大佬西蒙斯做量化交易，不小心搞出大模型DeepSeek DeepSeek在2000个GPU上，花了不到600万美金和2个月的时间，就实现了对齐GPT-4o和Claude 3.5 Sonnet的测试结果。成本降了10倍以上，同时质量却能比肩t1阵营，并且开源的
绿豆2025-01-05 11:05:59
中国AI大模型智取美国顶级实验室，成本下降许多性能不差，拜登芯片管制适得其反 DeepSeek outwits the top American labs DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company that has spun out of a hedge fund, released its Version 3 large language model. It performs about as well as Claude 3.5 Sonnet. The breakthrough is how cheap it was to train. At roughly $5.6m to train, DeepSeek v3 was about a hundred times cheaper than Meta’s Llama 3 and probably a similar magnitude cheaper than Claude. (Technical details for those who want are here.) DeepSeek’s API costs 12 times less than Anthropics. Developers around the world are starting to have fun with it. Biden’s chip export controls have notionally hampered the team. But necessity is the mother of invention, and they delivered this superb model through ingenuity rather than brute force. The ramifications: As was reasonably likely, the export controls have backfired. The gap between open source (like DeepSeek) and closed source (like OpenAI) is narrowing rapidly. It calls into question efforts to constrain open-source AI development. China now has several world-class teams building AI systems, including Qwen, Kling (in video), Apollo (in self-driving) and, of course, Bytedance. 年终的觉醒：需要我们关注的“中国人造卫星” 以及如何在 2025 年维护和平与繁荣 The year-end wake-up: The ‘Chinese Sputnik’ that demands our attention And how to maintain peace and prosperity in 2025
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绿豆2025-01-05 11:38:302021年英伟达股价在哪里？
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绿豆2025-01-05 11:43:07幻方量化2021年就囤了1万张英伟达A100，英伟达股价不超过37

幻方量化不小心搞出大模型DeepSeek
绿豆2025-01-05 11:38:30
2021年英伟达股价在哪里？
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绿豆2025-01-05 12:00:41再见了，美国国务卿布林肯
布林肯接受FT采访，对中耿耿于怀！

安东尼·布林肯：“中国一直在努力实现两全其美”
FT：Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’[回复]
绿豆2025-01-05 12:05:54围堵中方
奥巴马TPP，特朗普贸易战，拜登印太战略

10年了，别提它了！
绿豆2025-01-05 12:00:41
再见了，美国国务卿布林肯布林肯接受FT采访，对中耿耿于怀！安东尼·布林肯：“中国一直在努力实现两全其美” FT：Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’
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绿豆2025-01-05 12:24:09围堵中方，美国两党达成共识，基本国策
只不过两党方式方法不同，折腾来折腾去，浪费时间，中方要的就是时间。

如果特朗普第一任期延续奥巴马TPP，现在局面就不一样了。
如果拜登延续特朗普贸易战，加上疫情，现在局面就不一样了。
绿豆2025-01-05 12:05:54
围堵中方奥巴马TPP，特朗普贸易战，拜登印太战略 10年了，别提它了！
绿豆2025-01-05 12:00:41
再见了，美国国务卿布林肯布林肯接受FT采访，对中耿耿于怀！安东尼·布林肯：“中国一直在努力实现两全其美” FT：Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’
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绿豆2025-01-05 12:47:55奇瑞在俄罗斯早有工厂滴！[回复]
绿豆2025-01-05 13:05:33国内汽车零配件，出口俄罗斯，组装。
绿豆2025-01-05 12:47:55
奇瑞在俄罗斯早有工厂滴！
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绿豆2025-01-05 13:09:37俄罗斯汽车市场是德日韩退出，让给中国。

俄乌冲突，美欧等制裁俄罗斯
绿豆2025-01-05 12:47:55
奇瑞在俄罗斯早有工厂滴！
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绿豆2025-01-05 19:06:162023年至今，A股行业（申万）走势
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绿豆2025-01-05 19:14:08拜登政府
中美关系从欧洲第三方国杨委员与布林肯沙利文会晤，战狼开始；拜登等抵制冬奥会，拜登引火俄乌冲突，硬把俄罗斯推向中方一边；美国常务副国务卿舍曼天津二份清单。。。到秘鲁APEC中美领导人会晤结束
绿豆2025-01-05 12:00:41
再见了，美国国务卿布林肯布林肯接受FT采访，对中耿耿于怀！安东尼·布林肯：“中国一直在努力实现两全其美” FT：Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’
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绿豆2025-01-05 19:22:43拜登政府，两个外交大脑，布林肯沙利文
布林肯主欧洲，俄乌冲突
沙利文主亚太，巴以等冲突
哈马斯对以色列发动偷袭的八天前，沙利文说‘今天的中东比20年来更安静了。‘
绿豆2025-01-05 12:00:41
再见了，美国国务卿布林肯布林肯接受FT采访，对中耿耿于怀！安东尼·布林肯：“中国一直在努力实现两全其美” FT：Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’
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绿豆2025-01-05 19:34:18特朗普驱逐移民言论中，究竟有多少是选举语言？有多少会成为政策？又有多少最终可以贯彻得下去的？笔者认为不多。首先，白宫经济团队非常清楚收紧移民政策、驱逐非法移民对就业市场和服务价格的冲击。其次，马斯克及矽谷大佬的游说，已经成功将特朗普脱离了MAGA战斗式立场。第三，美国联邦及州政府根本没有多余的执法力量来执行激进的移民政策。

特朗普又双叒叕出卖MAGA啦！
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绿豆2025-01-05 21:32:23比亚迪
2024年在全球的新车销量比2023年增长41%，达到427万2145辆。比亚迪2024年升级了用于插电式混合动力车（PHV）的技术，搭载到新车上使PHV的销量增加7成
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绿豆2025-01-05 21:50:55一战二战，军火，美国发战争财。
空谷幽兰2025-01-05 21:42:36
20世纪30年代，美国拒绝加入国际联盟；不卷入欧洲和亚洲的政治纷争；不介入欧亚大陆爆发的战争，对所有互惠的国家奉行友好的外交政策。对一切交战国实施武器、弹药和军需品的强制性禁运，禁止美国船只向交战国运送军火。美国现在是民心思变，普遍的民众是想回到30年代。川普那么精明的人，肯定会看明白人心所向啦。如果特朗普第一任期延续奥巴马TPP，现在第二任期就肯定无法连任啦～
绿豆2025-01-05 12:24:09
围堵中方，美国两党达成共识，基本国策只不过两党方式方法不同，折腾来折腾去，浪费时间，中方要的就是时间。如果特朗普第一任期延续奥巴马TPP，现在局面就不一样了。如果拜登延续特朗普贸易战，加上疫情，现在局面就不一样了。
绿豆2025-01-05 12:05:54
围堵中方奥巴马TPP，特朗普贸易战，拜登印太战略 10年了，别提它了！
绿豆2025-01-05 12:00:41
再见了，美国国务卿布林肯布林肯接受FT采访，对中耿耿于怀！安东尼·布林肯：“中国一直在努力实现两全其美” FT：Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’
[回复]
绿豆2025-01-05 22:47:05比亚迪领先特斯拉成为最大的电动汽车制造商
BYD Pulls Ahead of Tesla to Become Largest EV Maker
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绿豆2025-01-06 00:03:02流感、COVID-19、RSV 和诺如病毒都在美国激增。

口罩强制令会卷土重来吗？
国会山：Are mask mandates making a comeback?
by Nancy Loo - 01/04/25 8:09 AM ET[回复]
绿豆2025-01-06 00:04:58包括洛杉矶、纽约和芝加哥在内的主要城市的住院人数急剧上升。
Hospitalizations are up sharply in major cities, including Los Angeles, New York and Chicago.
绿豆2025-01-06 00:03:02
流感、COVID-19、RSV 和诺如病毒都在美国激增。口罩强制令会卷土重来吗？国会山：Are mask mandates making a comeback? by Nancy Loo - 01/04/25 8:09 AM ET
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绿豆2025-01-06 00:11:48卫生官员建议免疫功能低下的人在公共场合戴口罩以预防疾病，在威斯康星州，一家主要的医疗保健集团将从下周开始恢复口罩强制令。
绿豆2025-01-06 00:04:58
包括洛杉矶、纽约和芝加哥在内的主要城市的住院人数急剧上升。 Hospitalizations are up sharply in major cities, including Los Angeles, New York and Chicago.
绿豆2025-01-06 00:03:02
流感、COVID-19、RSV 和诺如病毒都在美国激增。口罩强制令会卷土重来吗？国会山：Are mask mandates making a comeback? by Nancy Loo - 01/04/25 8:09 AM ET
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绿豆2025-01-06 00:14:08前FDA局长称拜登“处理不当”禽流感，敦促特朗普迅速采取行动

国会山：Ex-FDA chief says Biden ‘mishandling’ bird flu, urges swift action from Trump
by Ashleigh Fields - 01/04/25 4:19 PM ET
绿豆2025-01-06 00:03:02
流感、COVID-19、RSV 和诺如病毒都在美国激增。口罩强制令会卷土重来吗？国会山：Are mask mandates making a comeback? by Nancy Loo - 01/04/25 8:09 AM ET
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绿豆2025-01-06 00:55:52美国疾控中心（CDC ）表示，全国流感急诊室就诊人数现在“非常高”
几个西部州的发病率比去年的流感高峰期还要糟糕。
CBS：Flu emergency room visits now "very high" nationwide, CDC says
Several Western states are seeing rates worse than last year's peak of flu season.

Jan 3
绿豆2025-01-06 00:03:02
流感、COVID-19、RSV 和诺如病毒都在美国激增。口罩强制令会卷土重来吗？国会山：Are mask mandates making a comeback? by Nancy Loo - 01/04/25 8:09 AM ET
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绿豆2025-01-06 01:12:10美国各期限国债收益率和美元利率走势
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绿豆2025-01-06 11:40:0420周线，乖离度，看看反抽情况怎样，不着急。
绿豆2025-01-05 01:03:23
上证指数周线
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绿豆2025-01-06 12:23:36上午遇见炒股上海大妈，笑眯眯，赚钱呗！
绿豆2025-01-05 00:06:47
沪深300周线，韭菜，躺平！
[回复]
绿豆2025-01-06 12:49:58食之无味
看两市缩量
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绿豆2025-01-06 15:12:03上证指数会在那根线止跌？
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绿豆2025-01-06 15:22:112024年各类资产的回报率
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绿豆2025-01-06 15:40:17老外看好中国医院市场

新加坡医院运营商瞄准中国富有的婴儿潮一代
彭博：Singapore Hospital Operator Targets Wealthy Boomers in China
By Karoline Kan
January 05, 2025 at 4:00PM EST
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绿豆2025-01-06 15:46:22上海周边省浙江安徽江苏农家乐，到处上海大妈！
绿豆2025-01-06 12:23:36
上午遇见炒股上海大妈，笑眯眯，赚钱呗！
绿豆2025-01-05 00:06:47
沪深300周线，韭菜，躺平！
[回复]
绿豆2025-01-06 21:33:56模型
近5个交易日A股涨幅前20只股票
300615 46.39%
002184 43.98%
603617 42.27%
002397 39.78%
600530 29.24%
600693 29.15%
002733 29.13%
000573 26.94%
600789 25.32%
002265 25.23%
000533 22.87%
603007 21.50%
603959 21.41%
600398 20.49%
603229 20.30%
600191 20.26%
601011 19.92%
600824 19.74%
600664 19.14%
600618 18.85%[回复]
绿豆2025-01-06 21:56:22特朗普关税缩小范围

据《华盛顿邮报》报道，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的助手正在考虑一项适用于所有国家的关税计划，但仅限于特定的关键进口商品，并援引三名未透露姓名的知情人士的话说。
如果实施，该计划将标志着特朗普在竞选期间提出的 10% 至 20% 的普遍关税大幅收窄，经济学家预计此举将推高消费者价格并扭曲全球贸易模式

特朗普团队考虑缩小普遍关税，邮报报道
彭博：Trump Team Mulls Narrowing Universal Tariffs, Post Reports[回复]
绿豆2025-01-06 22:04:23特朗普关税缩小范围，美元指数两个月来跌幅最大
彭博：Dollar Falls Most in Two Months on Report Trump to Limit Tariffs
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绿豆2025-01-07 00:23:57中国推出下一代战斗机：歼-50
该飞机可能采用人工智能（AI）进行飞行管理、战斗场景分析以及与无人驾驶无人机的协调。这项技术使飞行员能够专注于战略决策，而 AI 则处理日常任务和实时战术调整。
SOFX
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绿豆2025-01-07 00:43:05加拿大总理小土豆辞职

FT：Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces resignation[回复]
绿豆2025-01-07 01:09:05金三胖放烟花，欢迎美国国务卿布林肯访问韩国

AP：South Korea says North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the sea
绿豆2025-01-05 12:00:41
再见了，美国国务卿布林肯布林肯接受FT采访，对中耿耿于怀！安东尼·布林肯：“中国一直在努力实现两全其美” FT：Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’
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