市场对美3月减息的预期时有反复，最近的一次看淡3月加息，是在上周二(16日)美联储局的Chris Waller主要讲：data-dependent, mini-mission-acoomplished, be careful of easing financial conditions.

原话是这样

　　(1)“I am becoming more confident that we are within striking distance of achieving a sustainable level of 2% PCE inflation.”

　　(2)“As long as inflation doesn't rebound and stay elevated, I believe the FOMC will be able to lower the target range for the federal funds rate this year.”

　　(3)“This view is consistent with the FOMC's economic projections in December, in which the median projection was three 25-basis-point cuts in 2024.”

　　(4)“When the time is right to begin lowering rates, I believe it can and should be lowered methodically and carefully.”he said.

　　(5)“With economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2%，　I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past.”

简译过来及笔者的演绎如下：

　　1. 有信心，PCE（个人消费开支物价指数）会在近期内达到2%水平。PCE 2%是美联储局所望达到的通胀水平，达此美联储局便会减息，所以Waller所预期的2% PCE近期可达，即今年，明年，美联储局定然会减息，所以减息无论是在3月或之后，美息定可减。

　　2. 只要通胀势头不反弹，美联储局今年内是有望减息。留意，是今年内会减息。

　　3. 去年12月的美联储局议息会预期2024年会减息三次，每次0.25厘。

　　4. 当到要减息之时，Waller认为美联储局会有序地及小心地减息。

　　这其实是谓美联储局不会急速减息，免对市场带来冲击。

　　5. 由于就业市场仍好，通胀也缓步降向2%，所以没理由去快速减息。

　　总合Waller之言就是：在2024年美息是会减的，但减三次每次0.25厘，减息会缓步来。

　　故Waller言一出，市场立马看扁3月会减息的盼头，美十年债息立马回上4%，美股也跌了，但这种Knee Jeck反应，一过了，就要回归现实，而现实是市场竟加码估3月会减息0.5厘。为什么市场有这种大差异，又估3月减更要减0.5厘，又估3月不减，全在于投资者从那个角度去看美联储局一定要减息之事。

　　时好时坏的经济数据会导致Knee Jeck反应，对减息之预期易导致反复，但Waller话今年可减息三次，则美息会减也不用多争拗。投资者只用顺好减息势而行便是。

　　但当我们看见稍后见经济数据不太差，但美联储局仍要减息，这个减息便是凶兆。笔者于1月18日在“3月减息乃凶兆”一文已言及，就是因为这凶的存在，所以市场近日便竟谓3月可减息0.5厘。

　　除减息外，市场亦预期美联储局会停止或减少QT。J.P. Morgan在其1月12日的定息投资建议中有如下阐述：

　　．Given the nascent discussion on slowing and stopping QT in the December FOMC minutes, and new information from Fed leadership in recent days, we re-evaluate our own projections.

　　．We now expect that the FOMC will have the outline of a timeline at the January meeting, communicated mid-February minutes to that meeting. We expect that this plan will be formally agreed to at the mid-March meeting and will be implemented beginning in April.

　　．We look for the monthly cap on the runoff of Treasury securities to be reduced to $30bn/mo(down from $60bn/mo)and we expect no change in the $35bn/mo cap on mortgages.

　　．We think the Fed could be targeting reserves closer to a 10% share of nominal GDP, and we envision QT concluding at the end of November, while ON RRP balances remain large enough to affect smooth functioning of money markets-even while reserves remain somewhat above most estimates of lowest comfortable level of reserves.

　　简言之，是J.P. Morgan认为市场资金流动性不足，故美联储局要停止收水，搞不好还要QE呢？其中原由，笔者在1月18日文已述及，就是因为“凶兆”仍在，故市场仍跟着美联储局对着干，认为3月会减息，而且会一减便是半厘。

　　不用等太久，过多两个月便知了。

　　投资涉风险，每位投资者承受风险程度不一，务必要独立思考。笔者会因应市况而买卖。

　　《经济通》所刊的署名及／或不署名文章，相关内容属作者个人意见，并不代表《经济通》立场，《经济通》所扮演的角色是提供一个自由言论平台。