美储局上周日(12日)出了如下声明：

　　To support American businesses and households, the Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors. This action will bolster the capacity of the banking system to safeguard deposits and ensure the ongoing provision of money and credit to the economy.

　　译过来就是，会提供足够资金，给所有合格银行去支付存款者的提取，以保障经济和信贷市场运作。

　　钱从何来？是透过个BTFP来。

　　The financing will be made available through the creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program(BTFP)，　offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. These assets will be valued at par. The BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution’s need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.

　　译过来是：成立个Bank Term Funding Program(BTFP)，向合资格的、有需要的存贷机构，提供一年期的抵押资金，以免这些存贷机构，在市场急求售资产，而引起金融市场波动。

　　这个想法是很好的，这个BTFP有多少资金可以去顶这个需急救钱局！

　　美储局谓，美财政部会自Exchange Stabilization Fund拨出250亿美元予BTFP，但市场估这个急救钱是需资2兆美元！！！250亿去顶2兆美元局？怕大卫·科波菲尔也搞不定！

　　喔！会不会这250亿只是先头拨款，继后有大资金押注？听好了，以下是美储局、美财政部和Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation(FDIC)出的联合声明：

　　After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve, and consulting with the President, Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors. Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.

　　We are also announcing a similar systemic risk exception for Signature Bank, New York, New York, which was closed today by its state chartering authority. All depositors of this institution will be made whole. As with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, no losses will be borne by the taxpayer.

　　译过来就是，会救，但不会用纳税人的钱来救，即是就是这么多，或是要多怕也多不了多少，不会倾全国之力去救。于是：存款户的钱应是安全的，但债主、股东，都不被纳入被救之列。

　　如这250亿能起到四两拨千斤，起到定海神针作用，真是天佑美国，但如稳不了呢？看图一美国有18兆美元的存款额。

　　SIVB未出事前是美国第18大银行（图二），截至去年底，SIVB的存户有1700亿存在SIVB！这两周SIVB的存款已被提走了不少，SIVB的现金存量已达负数。但现金存量到负数，并不代表所有存户已提取了所有的钱，一如有人欠债(存户)百万，但袋已清零，此人仍有一百万元的欠债。

　　SIVB虽然爆煲，但一些大银行对收购SIVB表示出兴趣，有白武士来救，好事。但在2008年3月也有Bear Stearns等机构陷财困，而由美国的大金融机构合并了。但到8月，仍免不了有雷曼倒闭，因为这些机构要倒，是泡沫所然，是个趋势。

　　汇丰(00005)就先行军，用一英镑收购了SIVB的英国业务，那么便宜，必然是要接收SIVB英国的债。现时看银行业的资产，不是看你存款有多少(因随时可以被提出)，而是要看贷出去的债能否被收回来。估计SIVB英国的贷出债有55亿英镑，这些债能否被回收，全取决于债仔(多是科技创投)在未来的科研成效，产品可否成金及未来的信贷情况如何(加息？减息？)，我看不通。

美加息周期已死

　　上文提及的美储局、美财政部和FDIC的声明是如此结语：

　　The U.S. banking system remains resilient and on a solid foundation, in large part due to reforms that were made after the financial crisis that ensured better safeguards for the banking industry. Those reforms combined with today's actions demonstrate our commitment to take the necessary steps to ensure that depositors' savings remain safe.

　　译过来是：

　　我们自上次金融危机(雷曼爆破)之后已做了不少改进，以保证存户的存款安全，今次亦如是，存户的钱是安全的。

　　市场怎解读？

　　Translation：the Fed's hiking cycle is dead and buried, and here comes the next round of massive liquidity injections. It also means that the Fed, Treasury and FDIC have just experienced the most devastating humiliation in recent history - just 4 days ago Powell was telling Congress he could hike 50bps and here we are now using taxpayer funds to bail out banks that have collapsed because they couldn't even handle 4.75% and somehow the Fed has no idea！

　　美储局加息周期已死！！！

　　4日前鲍威尔尚向国会听证会讲，可以加息至5厘上。但今时在4.75%的联邦基金利率水平，SIVB及其他类似银行，已顶唔顺，破产了，美储局尚要加息？

　　所以美息的加息预期立跌（图三）。

　　在上周五(10日)，市场已赌到今年底，美储局要减息25点子，在昨文亦已提出了（图四）。

　　所以笔者一直认为鲍威尔是插上鹰毛的鸽，因为形势比人强！

　　投资涉风险，每位投资者承受风险程度不一，务必要独立思考。笔者会因应市况而买卖。

　　《经济通》所刊的署名及／或不署名文章，相关内容属作者个人意见，并不代表《经济通》立场，《经济通》所扮演的角色是提供一个自由言论平台。